(Dec 7): The world economy is facing one of its worst years in three decades as the energy shocks unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to reverberate, according to Bloomberg Economics.
In a new analysis, economist Scott Johnson forecasts growth of just 2.4% in 2023. That’s down from an estimated 3.2% this year and the lowest — excluding the crisis years of 2009 and 2020 — since 1993.
However, the headline figure is likely to mask diverging fortunes, with the euro area starting 2023 in recession and the US ending the year in one. By contrast, China is projected to expand more than 5%, boosted by a faster-than-expected end to its zero-tolerance Covid strategy and support for its crisis-hit property market.
Differences will also be on display when it comes to monetary policy after a year in which central banks “dashed toward restrictive territory in a pack,” Johnson wrote.
“In the US, with wage gains set to keep inflation above target, we think the Fed is headed toward a terminal rate of 5%, and will stay there till 1Q2024. In the euro area, meanwhile, a more rapid decline in inflation will mean a lower terminal rate and the possibility of cuts at the end of 2023.”
In China, where authorities are torn between a desire to support the recovery and concern about the weakness of the currency, “limited” rate cuts are on the cards.
.
By Andrew Atkinson. Bloomberg. 07 December 2022.
Source: The Edge Market.. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/world-economy-heads-one-its-worst-years-three-decades. 11 December 2022.
You may also like
The Fully Autonomous Ship Project is entering its second phase: “Testing”
The Fully Autonomous Ship Project is entering its second phase: “Testing”. We are now entering the second phase of MEGURI2040, a project led by the Nippon Foundation, aimed at creating a fully autonomous ship with a clear objective: the implementation of all autonomous navigation technologies developed during phase 1 by 2025. The program will focus on achieving this main goal [...]
24/09/2023
Container shipping market back in 2019
Container shipping market back in 2019. Alan Murphy, CEO and founder of Copenhagen supply chain analyst Sea Intelligence, has warned of widespread service cancellations on major trade lanes across the Pacific Ocean and between Asia and Europe between now and the end of the year. _____________________________________ Murphy was speaking week at the Saudi Maritime Congress held in Damman this week. [...]
24/09/2023
DP World eyes logistics and supply chain expansion in SE Asia
DP World eyes logistics and supply chain expansion in SE Asia. DP World is looking to expand its logistics and supply chain capabilities in the Southeast Asian region building on its existing terminal business. “As we seek to grow our legacy ports & terminals business, we are also working to significantly enhance our capabilities within the fuller spectrum of [...]
24/09/2023